Lineup Lessons: Matchday Three

With three weeks in the books, the lessons from team's lineups are mainly that anything can happen and few, if any, players can really be totally relied upon to start. COVID-19 continues to cause havoc in the footballing world, with Ajax looking like they would be reduced to a youth team, but then fielding a pretty strong side after senior players were able to be added late in the day, while Lazio's rollercoaster situation continues to play out. Putting aside the obvious real world issues here, for our purposes I think the lesson is that your bench becomes even more important than usual (and it's already more important in UCL due to the ability to sub players in). 

In this week's lineup lessons then I am therefore going to focus on mid-range options who have emerged as reliable starters with a reasonable amount of upside. I am also focusing on midfielders and forwards as there seems to be an abundance of options in each of the price brackets at the back, and the key there remains simply finding clean sheets and attacking points. 

Diogo Jota (7.5m) is a great option in this format, as you have a reduced need to predict his usage, given the ability to make in-week substitutions. Liverpool do unfortunately play on Wednesday twice (MD4 and MD6) which makes the switch more difficult, but you at least still know the score you are risking when bringing him on. When he does play, his stats speak for themselves. Second only to the great Leo Messi (12.1m) in xG+xA per 90 minutes (1.61), and he would of course jump ahead of the legend without the Barcelona man's penalties (which presumably won't continue at a rate of one a game). Mo Salah (11.5m) has of course fallen victim to COVID-19 himself, and while he would typically be out of quarantine before Liverpool's next European tie, it's possible he feels some lingering effects of the virus which can only help Jota's opportunities here. 

Ferran Torres (7.6m) is in a similar position to Jota, and while he hasn't been quite as explosive, his underlying stats and actual output are both very encouraging and represent excellent value in this price range. Sergio Aguero (10.0m) and Raheem Sterling (10.5m) weren't quite fit enough for the weekend's game against Spurs, though both made the bench, with Sterling enjoying a brief cameo. Though no one really impressed in that one for City, Torres was better than an ineffective Mahrez and arguably Jesus too, putting him in a good position to keep his spot even if Sterling and / or Aguero are ready. He's riskier than Jota for me, but if a deep enough there's certainly enough upside here to warrant inclusion. 

Viktor Tsygankov (7.5m) is unfortunately another COVID story, with the Kiev man testing positive before Ukraine's defeat to Germany. With just 8 days until the next game, it's unlikely he'll be ready, and given the opponents (Barcelona) it's probably not worth the risk. However, for those who do bring in someone like Jota or Torres, Tsygankov might be a nice escape route in MD4 if their minutes get seriously curtailed, as he is presumably pretty locked into this side when healthy. His 2.4 xG in the first three games in second only to Joao Felix among midfielders, and his penalty duties underscore that potential for the future too. 

Ansu Fati (8.3m) was in my original draft so for completeness I'll keep him in here, noting of course that the young Barce man is facing several months on the sidelines. A huge blow to what was shaping up to be a very promising coming-out-party for Fati, could at least give extra security to Pedri (6.0m) who has posted reasonable numbers himself, albeit at a much less exciting rate than his teammate. 

Mario Pasalic (7.5m) got himself on the scoresheet for Croatia but in an inescapable trend for this week's action, was then potentially exposed to COVID-19 and had to nervously await the results of his test (which seem fine based on his inclusion in the 0-0 draw with Spezia, although as we've seen with Lazio that assumption isn't unimpeachable). Assuming he is well, he should slot back into this exhilarating Atalanta side, who face a Liverpool side who look increasingly vulnerable at the back, and then, of course FC Midtjylland in MD5. With an xG and xA of 0.6 and 1.1 respectively, Pasalic has plenty of ways to score points, and the sum of those totals (1.7) puts him 19th among all players so far in the Champions League, trailing a who's who of global stars and a few other names from this article. 

Joao Felix (9.0m) is someone who perhaps developed an unfair reputation of "disappointing" on arrival to Atleti, in part due to the enormous transfer fee, but also admittedly a somewhat underwhelming first season. Felix is off to a terrific start both domestically and in Europe, with some suggesting he's in the best form of anyone in La Liga. Atleti aren't perhaps as free scoring as some in the competition (4.3 xG in three games) and were underwhelming last time out against Lokomotiv Moscow, but, they get another go in the upcoming week and then get Salzburg again in MD6 who they really undid in MD2. Almost everyone else on the list is either the focal point of a lower tier team, or a rotation risk in a top team, but Felix is really the exception. A truly talismanic presence who continues to excel and improve, the young star looks really hard to ignore, even if he does still have to face Bayern. 

Anton Miranchuk (6.0m) is one of the cheaper options on this list and could be a really solid enabling player for this price. His underlying numbers are excellent to date (1.4 xG and 0.8 xA) and as the only Lokomotiv player to take a penalty this season, we can assume he'll continue with that honour should the opportunity present itself. I'm not thrilled about the fixtures here, but Salzburg have shown they can be exposed, and it's possible Bayern will rest starters in MD6 so there are worse ideas than basically buying Miranchuk for three shots at a penalty, with anything else being a bonus. 

Dusan Tadic (9.0m) was one of the Ajax players expected to miss the game against Midtjylland, but the Serbian was able to play after a late negative test and ended up notching a goal and an assist. Having featured for Serbia against Scotland too, we can assume he is now healthy enough to play again here (assuming no issues emerge over the weekend). Tadic's underlying numbers are fine (0.4 xG and 0.2 xA per 90 mins) rather than spectacular but he's firmly in that talisman category, taking charge of penalties and free kicks and being locked into the starting eleven (COVID permitting). 

Sehrou Guirassy (6.5m) has potential but is hard to pin down. Against Krasnodar in MD1 (their opponents in MD5) the Rennes front man managed an impressive 1.4 xG (aided by a penalty of course) but then added no more expected goals against Sevilla and Chelsea. In the league he's doing fine but not spectacularly, but again, with so much uncertainty elsewhere, a locked in starter on penalty duties isn't to be ignored. It's tough to expect much this week against Chelsea, but then they get that promising Krasnodar game and then MD6 is always a bit of a lottery. I don't love the upside here but there's something to think about for sure. 

Alassane Plea (8.0m) made his mark with the MD3 hattrick but has also fallen victim to COVID so drops out of contention here. For what it's worth his underlying numbers are far less impressive anyway so this paragraph was going to be a cautionary tale anyway. 

Hakim Ziyech (9.0m) is a favourite among English Premier League fantasy managers these days, after some extremely impressive performances in the league. His Champions League numbers are solid too, with an average xG + xA 0.67 per 90 mins, which ranks favourably among notable options like Sadio Mane (0.64), Raheem Sterling (0.64), and Angel Di Maria (0.66). He doesn't of course take penalties like some on this list, but his set pieces are a great weapon, especially with Tammy Abraham also deployed in the absence of Pulisic. 9.0m is a touch high here (8.0m in the FPL game is more intriguing) and you can probably find more upside for just a touch more money, but Chelsea are a strong team with good fixtures and the former Ajax man seems well placed to be involved.