Position Review: Defenders (2/2)
Budget (4.0m-4.5m)
There seems to be an unequivocal winner here in Jules Kounde (4.0m), who looks like a lock in a very good Sevilla defense (ranked third above) and even posted solid balls recovered numbers last season which have improved further in the first handful of games this season. Unfortunately 30% of managers have also unearthed this gem which really dampens the appeal, but it's probably too cute to not pick him just because he's popular given how solid this pick is.
The only other potentially viable 4.0m defender I can see is Jerome Onguene (4.0m) at Salzburg, though he doesn't appear to be completely locked into that first team, having seen rotation with Ramalho, Vallci (often at right back), and Wober. If you are looking for a player to sit on your bench and who you will only use in very rare circumstances then this is the best bet after Kounde, but given the ability to sub in off your bench, I'd probably try and scrape together the 0.5m to upgrade to one of the below options if you can.
The 4.5m group also seems to offer a clear cut favourite with Felipe (4.5m) from the typically reliable Atletico Madrid looking like a very solid selection. With a MD1 trip to Bayern, this is maybe someone to target with a transfer, but he should be a very nice option on the turn as Atleti get Lokomotiv Moscow back-to-back in MD3 and MD4. His balls recovered numbers are somewhat average so this isn't someone I'd ideally be playing against better sides, which is a bit of an issue in their Group but the price is certainly appealing.
Lazio's Patric (4.5m) seems to have a place on the right of the back three, having started all three games this season. 538 doesn't love any of Lazio's fixtures from a defensive perspective, but nor does it think Lazio will be completely overmatched, suggesting Patric could be a nice option to throw on if your regular starter didn't do the business. His balls recovered numbers look solid if not spectacular so the former Barcelona man should offer a relatively high floor too.
The 538 model quite likes Zenit's defensive chances, giving them three games with projected goals conceded of 1.1 or less. I must confess to not knowing a great deal about this back line, other than the presence of one of the world's best defenders, of course. Karavaev (4.5m) and Santos (4.5m) have each started all 10 games this season (along with the aforementioned superstar Lovren (5.0m)) and with Santos suspended Karavaev seems to be the pick. He even notched a goal and four assists in just 20 games last season so might offer some value going forward too. Alas, we don't have balls recovered data for the Russian leagues but his Champions League numbers from last season are underwhelming so don't look for too much help there.
Solid defense isn't the first thing to come to mind when talking about Atalanta, but those two games against Midtjylland look tempting and Palomino (4.5m) seems relatively secure in that back three, albeit not a lock. Still, if you're buying into this Atalanta side you are probably chasing attacking points and taking clean sheets as a bonus which suggests Hateboer (5.0m) or the much fancied Gosens (5.5m) might be the picks here (more on them later).
Edson Alvarez (4.5m) looks intriguing given his more advanced deployment of late, but it's worth noting that he notched just a single goal and no assists last season in 19 appearances, so perhaps not worth getting overly excited about and teammate Lisandro Martinez (4.5m) might make more sense as a more secure pick. Games against Liverpool and Atalanta don't look too appealing, but the MD3 / MD4 fixtures against Midtjylland do look appetizing. Maybe one to consider for a MD3 wildcard if that ends up being needed.
Naif Aguerd (4.5m) seems to have kept his place in the Rennes side following the impressive capture of Daniele Rugani (5.0m) and is a tempting MD1 option, given their favourable opponents (Krasnodar), but the going looks tough after that. Planning transfers for budget defenders isn't perhaps the best use of them, but it's at least worth a thought to start with Aguerd then pivot to Felipe after he gets the Bayern game out of the way.
Middlemen (5.0 - 5.5m)
One would expect there to be the longest list of names here, but in many cases there isn't enough extra value to justify the added expense over the aforementioned names - which wipes out many players from teams such as Atletico, Sevilla and Lazio - or too large of a fall off from the elite options - eliminating otherwise solid picks from Bayern and Inter. We do still have plenty of options to look at though.
538 projects Man City to concede the fewest goals in the group stage (4.6) but in a story all too familiar to FPL players, choosing the right City option isn't easy. A fit again Laporte (5.5m) seems like the best roll-of-the-dice, with no one in the side really distinguishing themselves in terms of balls recovered or attacking threat. An emergence of Ake (5.0m) or Garcia (4.5m) as a European starter would obviously be extremely appealing.
The ageless Gerard Pique (5.5m) looks like a solid pick for another defense that 538 likes a lot, even if their overall side doesn't capture the imagination as it once did. The Spaniard has posted very solid balls recovered numbers and while he managed only a single goal last season, his xG + xA was 3.4 suggesting some attacking potential. A worthy - if not particularly sexy - pick to play every week and give you flexibility to take risks elsewhere.
Juventus benefit from those same fixtures as Barcelona (although have to face Messi in the others!) but it isn't totally clear who to back here. De Light (5.0m) - who endured a difficult first season after his huge move from Ajax - is yet to feature this season while veterans Bonucci (5.5m) and Chiellini (5.5m) are fine but fail to get one too excited. Danilo (5.0m) has started Juventus' first two league games, notching an assist in the process, but faces competition from a number of directions, representing a risk in this price bracket.
Dortmund's group looks manageable for the German side, and the great Mats Hummels (5.0m) looks like a perfect pick here. He led the Champions League in balls recovered points last season with 24 and he's normally good for a handful of scoring contributions a season. For what it's worth he's already accumulated 1.1 xG + xA in 5 games, though it's not clear if that uptick is based on anything sustainable. Either way, to get a player of this quality, with a high floor, good fixtures and even some upside looks like a steal.
If their draw had been easier I would very likely be considering a Leipzig double up, picking between three viable options in Dayot Upamecano (5.0m), Lukas Klosterman (5.0m), and Konrad Laimer (5.0m). Alas, Laimer is currently sidelined, and the presence of PSG and Man Utd make it difficult to invest too much here, despite this remaining a solid team. For me, Upamecano's balls recovered numbers look hard to ignore and he's a real contender for my MD1 squad given the visit of Istanbul Basaksehir.
I'm quite surprised to see Chelsea do so well in 538's model, though this is obviously in part to do with their relatively easy group compared to others. Who to target is tricky as no one offers the whole package of secure playing time, balls recovered, and attacking threat. This might be a side who it's good to see who Lampard will favour in Europe in MD1, and then bring them in before the Krasnodar-Rennes-Rennes run in MD2-4. Gun to my head, Thiago Silva (5.0m) would be my pick, as it looks like he will miss out this weekend due to fatigue from the international week, leaving him ready to go against Sevilla.
Atalanta's attacking numbers are off to a typically explosive start with an unbelievable 13 goals in three games (albeit with a 6.8 xG). Their dynamic full back pair - Hateboer (5.0m) and Gosens (5.5m) - have accrued 1.0 and 1.7 xG + xA respectively in those three fixtures, suggesting a continuation of the form that saw them record totals of 7.2 and 10.2 last season respectively. Gosens' impressive10 goals and 7 assists from that campaign obviously jump off the page (Hateboer managed a modest 2 and 5) but the aforementioned "expected" stats suggest a closer contest between the pair. I might lean towards Gosens between the two given that there still remained a pretty solid gap between the expected numbers, but at 5.5m I'm really looking for someone who can contribute in all phases. I am considering an exception for Hakimi who has offered otherwordly attacking potential for a defender, which I guess could apply to Gosens based on his actual numbers - but not so much his xG + xA.
There are many good players we haven't each mentioned here, but such is the depth of the Champions League. All you can really hope is to get the best value player on a given team, who can help your squad in multiple ways. For what it's worth, at the time of writing I am fairly certain that Kounde and Felipe will be my budget options, Kimmich will be my elite man and then the other two spots will be filled by some combination of Hakimi, Davies, Hummels, and Upamecano. The deciding factor will likely be whether the 1.0 million saved by the latter two options can be used to genuinely upgrade somewhere else in my side.
I'm conscious that time is quickly running out before Tuesday but hope to be back with midfielders and forwards over the weekend, then round out with a quick goalie piece on Monday (warning: this will be short as I am highly likely to only really talk about 4.5m options there).
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