Position Review: Mid-priced and budget midfielders and forwards

So we're on the eve of kick off day and still haven't looked at the deepest field of players, so we're going to have to keep each player blurb brief. As a general note, with a number of very promising elite midfielder and forwards and a defensive setup which also suggests getting at least one or two premium defensive options, you are going to need to find three or four mid-level players and one or two budget picks to round out your squad. Until we know who's in, who's out, who's hot, and frankly, who has COVID-19, having a deeper bench makes a lot of sense, so I am personally likely to err towards holding several ~6.5m players rather than an 8.5m player but then a 4.5m sub. There's value either way though, so let's jump in.

[As a reminder, to help you allocate your teams between each "side of the draw" we've included an S1 or S2 tag below - neither is better than the other, with balance being the goal]

Mid-range

Two Barcelona options find themselves in this category: one trying to re-establish an elite career, and another putting the first markers down in what we hope will be one. Ansu Fati (8.0, S1) has started very well in La Liga this season with three goals in 4 games, although an 0.8 xG doesn't impress as much, nor does his 6 shots and 4 shots on target. I love the upside and anyone playing alongside the greatest-of-all-time deserves a thought, but 8.0m seems like a lot of pay without more certainty. Coutinho (9.0, S1) meanwhile has all the pedigree one could ask for, but we're just not sure if he's that player anymore. If I'm underwhelmed by Fati's underlying numbers then Coutinho is even further away from consideration with 0.9 xG and 0.5 xA in 4 games. Last season was said to be a rejuvenation for the Brazilian, yet an xG + xA of 11.2 in 23 games is fine, but for reference, Gnabry doubled that total (22.5) in only 8 more games, and costs just 1.0 million more.

Angel Di Maria's (9.0m, S1) star certainly hasn't waned, with the Argentinian posting his best xG and xA numbers from his time at PSG last season, and in a small sample this season he's increased them again to 0.43 and 0.72 per 90 mins. With the emergence of Mbappe, and the arrival of Icardi, it's no wonder Di Maria's assists continue to flow and that gives him a really high floor compared to some in this group. The biggest knock is really that with Mbappe and Neymar being owned by 27% of managers, bringing him in too means tying up 20 million+ plus in one team, who have to face Man Utd and last year's semi-finalists Leipzig twice (though it's worth noting PSG handled them easily in that one). Names like Draxler (8.0m, S1) and Sarabia (7.0m, S1) look like tempting avenues into this side, but I can't see either getting enough consistent minutes, barring an injury to one of the superstars.

Phil Foden (7.0m, S2) and Riyad Mahrez (9.0m, S2) make a lot of sense in this talented City side, who don't really face a tough game in the groups. However, even with Kevin De Bruyne this team wasn't quite playing the way we've grown accustomed too and it feels like we're still a couple of weeks away from everything clicking. It's a catch-22 for Foden and Mahrez as without the likes of De Bruyne and Aguero, they are much more likely to get playing time, yet it's in a side that seems to be happy to control and win games, than really lay waste to opponents. This makes Mahrez a bit expensive for me, but Foden is just so promising and with De Bruyne struggling he might be all but guaranteed to play at least the first two games. With the ability to sub in replacements he is certainly a temptation.

Speaking of tempting sides, Atalanta have 14 goals in 4 Serie A games (though their 7.8 xG is certainly a bit of a wet blanket). Still, we all know about the talent on offer here, but unfortunately that means their prices have caught up too. Zapata (9.5m, S2) is maybe the safest pick but that price tag is getting into elite territory which I'm not sure he is (then again . . .). Luis Muriel (8.5m, S2) has the best underlying stats for the brief season to date, though having come off the bench in 2 of his 4 appearances, he again looks a touch overpriced. Papu Gomez (8.5m, S2) has clearly caught the eye of many with a 15% ownership, presumably in part stemming from his 4 goal / 2 assist haul from the first four league games. An xG of 1.0 and xA 0.8 douse those flames a little, as do the 1 goal / 2 assist totals from 9 Champions League games last season (1.8 xG and 2.6 xA). Gomez is obviously influential but I'm not sure it will translate into fantasy points at a high enough rate for that price tag. Mario Pasalic (7.5m, S2) has the best price here, and has solid underlying numbers which essentially match his more fancied colleagues. He impressed in the 5-2 win over Cagliari and often found himself in more advanced positions than Gomez. 

They've lost Timo Werner, of course, but this Leipzig side retains a ton of value and interesting options. The obvious starting place would have been Marcel Sabitzer (8.5m, S1) who enjoyed a wonderful campaign last time out, but currently finds himself sidelined (for what it's worth I think I would have stayed away anyway as I think you're overpaying a little for those 60 points from last year which weren't supported by amazing stats). Leipzig offers at least three viable midfield options with Christopher Nkunku (7.5m, S1), Emile Forsberg (7.0m, S1) and Dani Olmo (6.0m, S1) all offering potential value for now. The issue with this group is that they are all liable to fall victim to rotation, with Julian Nagelsmann able to also draw from the likes of Hwang Hee-Chan (7.5m, S1), Yussuf Poulson (8.0m, S1), Justin Kluivert (7.0m, S1), and even Alex Sorloth (7.0m, S1) plus at some point the returning Sabitzer. Indeed, in the 2-0 victory over Augsburg at the weekend, Leipzig went without a recognised forward (Olmo, Forsberg and Nkunku played in a front three) for the second straight game, after Poulsen had led the line in the prior two games (but did come on in this one to score a beauty). All this uncertainty leads me to look for value and so Olmo and Forsberg's price tags look enticing. Olmo has started all four Bundesliga games so far, adding three assists to his name (albeit on just 1.0 xA), while Forsberg has taken penalty duties back (after sharing with Werner) and has two goals and an assist already (xG + xA of 2.3). 

Another team whose depth makes them tough to pick from is Borussia Dortmund. Outside of the big two (Håland and Sancho), Dortmund boast the likes of Marco Reus (8.5m, S1), Thorgan Hazard (8.5m, S1), Julian Brandt (8.5m, S1), and a couple of high-flying youngsters in Jude Bellingham (6.5m, S1) and Gio Reyna (6.5m, S1). Hazard is currently injured while Reus and Brandt have each been limited to suber-sub status, starting just one of the first four games. Bellingham, meanwhile has started three games, to some acclaim, but it's Gio Reyna who has caught my eye. He managed a hattrick of assists against Freiburg and while his xA is just fine (0.5) he's managed 19 shot creating actions, well ahead of even Sancho (13) and Håland (10) over the early games of the season. He isn't a lock to start from here on in a competition where you can rotate your players during the gameweek, 6.5m to play alongside one of the best finishers in Europe is great value. 

The biggest disappointment of the Champions League draw was the tough group given to Salzburg, who could have been a real source of incredible value. There's still a lot to like here, but a draw with Bayern and Atletico Madrid dampen their upside a fair amount. Patson Daka (7.5m, S2) is enjoying one of the hottest starts to the season in any league, with five goals and an assist in just 4 games (3 starts).  Sekou Koita (6.0m) meanwhile is even cheaper, and has four goals and an assist to his name too. This pair also have comparable shot numbers (16 vs 15) but without more depth of data it's hard to judge them too closely, and you don't learn too much from them steamrolling weaker sides in the Austrian Bundesliga. Maybe the fact that Koita didn't start the first leg of the knock out phase against Maccabi Haifa is a sign he is slightly less locked into this team than Daka, who played the full 180, notching 8 shots, 5 SoT and 2 goals across the two legs.

Another player off to a good start this season is Dusan Tadic (9.0m, S2), who has already notched 3 goals and 2 assists in 5 Eredivisie games. This group looked tougher before Van Dijk and Alisson were injured for Liverpool, which suddenly makes a lot of high scoring, end-to-end games quite possible between Ajax, Atalanta, and Liverpool (with them all then presumably feasting on poor FC Midtjylland). 538 actually rate Ajax's attacking unit on the same level of Atalanta and Man Utd, and they are only lower down the goal projections due to what was perceived to be tougher opponents. I still feel Tadic's price is a touch high but there's no arguing with his recent success, even if last season represented a step down from his monumental 2018-19 campaign. Elsewhere in this side, Antony (6.0m, S2) has 3 goals of his own, and has started all games bar the weekend's victory over Heerenveen in which he was a late-scoring sub, perhaps making him well rested for Wednesday. Quincy Promes (8.0m, S2) - also rested - impressed in recent games against Vitesse and RKC Waalwijk, building on his superb campaign from last season, in which he managed 12 goals and 4 assists in 20 games (the Eredivisie ending after 25 games due to COVID-19). 

Two Premier League sides in Man Utd and Chelsea have a lot of talent between them but I'm not really sure how to read them right now, and so with neither enjoying particularly good fixtures, I am deferring here until we see how Lampard and Solksjaer plan to deploy their teams in continental football. 

Budget Options

I would try and limit myself to only one, or maybe two player from this group, as in the most part they are here to notch 3 or 4 points a week and help you plug gaps when your starters flatter to deceive. One of the primary ways to achieve that stability is through balls recovered, which as discussed in the defender preview is an excellent way to smooth your point scoring. 

Wilmar Barrios (4.5m, S1) is currently tied with Lewandowski as the most owned player, with 46% of managers identifying him as a very solid bench option. 14 points from ball recoveries last season in 6 games helped him average a touch over 4 points a game, which is exactly what you want from this kind of player. If you need a minimum priced option, I don't believe there's a better option out there.

Casemiro (6.0m, S2) is about as good as they come in terms of balls recovered, and while not an absolute lock for the team, one would presume Real don't go with a midfield three of Modric, Kroos, and Isco in the Champions League, as they did against Cadiz (losing the game incidentally). Thiago (6.5m, S2) can do everything and makes sense at this price, but he's still 50:50 for this week so represents an undue risk for me at the moment. When putting together your dream team of Europe's elite, you don't typically look to too many former Stoke and Blackburn players but Steven Nzonzi (5.5m, S1) currently leads all players among Europe's top 5 leagues in ball recoveries and gets to face Krasnodar in MD1. 

Marten de Roon (6.0m, S2) is another player excelling in ball recoveries, and he even notched a goal in Atalanta's 6-2 destruction of Brescia. Don't get used to seeing that though, given his 0.3 xG for the season to date. That said, being in a team that will surely score a lot of goals is never a bad thing. The same could maybe be said for Idrissa Gueye (5.5m, S1) who has also unexpectedly notched a goal this season, to accompany his always stellar recovery numbers. The question there is whether the former Everton man can keep his place when Tuchel has a full contingent to choose from. Rodri (6.0m, S2) also benefits from being in a free scoring side without necessarily contributing to it, but again boasts great recovery numbers and could benefit from City's relatively easy group.

Tyler Adams (5.0m, S1) is competing in the aforementioned competitive Leipzig midfield but has an excellent rates of balls recovered this season and has started 3/4 games for the early league leaders, while being injured for the other one (now recovered). The American's versatility - having already lined up at right back, centre back and even right wing, along with his natural #6 position - should only help his chance of steady minutes.

We could go on forever here but I hope this has been enough to get your brain in gear and tuned to the Champions League game, ready to pick your team before tomorrow's deadline. Thanks for reading this preview and here's to another great season ahead.