Defender value

It goes without saying that the ability to find defenders who can contribute at both ends of the pitch is a worthy goal of any fantasy manager. The likes of Alexander-Arnold and Robertson have in the past become close to essential players to own in FPL thanks to their countless goals and assists at Liverpool (sometimes even to each other) while the two highest owned defenders at the time of writing in UCL are Alphonso Davies (42%) and Sergio Ramos (39%). Consider that no other Real Madrid defender has over 6% ownership and only the equally attacking Kimmich can top that mark at Bayern.

This theory is typically sound, but there are a couple of things to consider before investing too heavily in your defense solely to chase goals or assists. 

First, even the best defenders don't have that many attacking returns and there are obviously comparatively few Champions League games, which makes variance more impactful. For example, per Opta data, the aforementioned Alexander-Arnold had an incredible 17 attacking returns (4 goals and 13 assists) in ~35 Premier League games last season, so call it one return every other game. This was based on an xG + xA of 12.5, so maybe some overachievement, but perhaps just a case of having very good players on the end of his crosses, and his above average ability taking set pieces. Either way, he's legitimately one of Liverpool's best attacking options. 

However, let's say one of Alexander Arnold's crosses typically leads to a goal (say, his assist to Sadio Mane against West Ham which led to an xG of almost 0.8) but the player on the receiving end misses. Over a 38 game sample this is annoying but ultimately means he might register 18 rather than 19 attacking returns. However, in UCL this blown opportunity could reduce his returns from three to two, which is a more significant drop, and harder to cope with when you might have spent over a million more of your budget precisely to earn those extra points.

Second, the UCL scoring system offers points for "balls recovered" which can not only makeup for a lack of attacking points but in many cases outstrip those returns:

Among defenders who registered at least 20 total points, only four - Hakimi, Azpilicueta, Hateboer, and Semedo - earned more points from their attacking prowess (goals + assists) than from their (or their team's) defensive ability (clean sheets + balls recovered - goals conceded). UCL defender of the year, Joshua Kimmich managed an impressive five attacking returns, earning the second most attacking points (22) for the position, yet this was still less than or equal to the defensive points earned by no less than 15 defenders (including himself).

Let's take a closer look at those defensive points to see the split one step further:

In almost all cases, the leading contributor to defensive points was balls recovered, with the exception of PSG and Bayern players (who of course had the most chances to earn a clean sheet) and a small handful of others. 

This it itself seems somewhat valuable to note: defenders who tend to earn points in the attacking phase tend to be priced accordingly (see Ramos, Sergio etc.) but players who might do well through balls recovered are more likely to fly under the radar. This acts as a bit of an equalizer - akin to "saves" for 'keepers from the mid or lower tier sides - and might mean you can get as much value from a teammate that might cost 1.0 - 1.5 million less than the elite player you were targeting.

Players to target

Based on the above, I submit there remains three types of player to target:

1. Players whose attacking potential is so high that it can eclipse the above skepticism. For example, I didn't watch the game so cannot verify with the eye ball test, but at least on paper, Josh Kimmich seemed to play as something of a #10 in the DFL-Supercup game against Dortmund, racking up a team leading five shots, with four on target, and one goal (not to mention his corner taking duties). Anything like those kind of opportunities would make Kimmich a must own player ,considering that other advanced Bayern players will of course set you back double digit millions. Similarly, if a defender was to have a good chance at taking penalties, this would again be enough to overcome the aforementioned limitation of attacking returns. We'll touch on more examples in a future post but I would speculate that Kimmich, Hakimi, Ramos, Davies, and perhaps Gosens could fall into this category based on a very small sample of 2020-21 league data.
2. Players who recover a lot of balls (and perhaps offer some attacking value). Needless to say, the more ways a player can offer a legitimate scoring threat the better, however, it's possible that the more attacking options are priced out of the market, so there is likely a subset of players (such as van Dijk, Upamecano, or Hummels) who may might be had for the same price (or less) than teammates. Again, we'll touch on these in the next post.
3. Players who recover a lot of balls (but don't do much else). These folks make for very solid 5th defenders as their floor tends to be higher, notching three or four points a week rather than risking two-pointers, and thus being nice options off the bench when your stars falter and they are pressed into action (with a perhaps less than ideal fixture).

All these options are of course underpinned by a desire to also rack up the odd clean sheet, although you will notice that players like Hakimi, van Dijk, and Davies (who was classified as a midfielder last season) earned very few points from not conceding goals yet still finished close to the top of the defensive leaderboard.

I would guess managers are more prepared to account for balls recovered this season, after it was a new addition last year, but this remains a way to get a jump over at least the casual fan, and even some more serious players who will perhaps overvalue these and these and forget about these.