Playing the turn: wildcarding ahead of matchday three

In FPL, generally the optimum strategy for deploying your wildcard is to exercise patience, not get drawn into a panic-move in GW3 and play the card when you can most value because of a depleted squad or to take advantage of a double gameweek. In UCL though, the opportunities to deploy the chip are obviously fewer in number, particularly when you consider that you also essentially get a wildcard between the group and knockout stages.

With so many free transfers available during the knockout phase, combined with the reduced number of teams and lower risk of rotation (teams are typically going all out in knock out games), there's also perhaps a diminished value in using the wildcard in those weeks too, assuming you have structured your team strategically.

This has led me in past seasons to conclude that the best use of the wildcard is during the group phase. With that in mind, I think we're left with two obvious choices:

1. Save the wildcard for MD6 when a number of teams will have secured their spots in the knockout phase and might engage in rotation. With a reset coming before the knockout phase anyway, you can grab players for just a single week, giving you absolute flexibility to try and maximize points in a week when many will struggle to ever field a full XI.
2. Play the wildcard ahead of MD3, which brings two big advantages. One, teams face the same opponent in MD3 and MD4 which means if you play the fixtures then you automatically get double reward for you picks (e.g. Man Utd get to play Istanbul Basaksehir twice) and both while still needing to pickup points to progress to the next round. Two, we have a couple of weeks of lineups (plus half a dozen or so league games) so we have a good idea of managers' first choice teams before they get ravaged by injuries, suspensions etc (although as discussed after matchday two, many lineups are far from settled right now). 

In this piece, of course, we are focusing on option two and will circle back the first option closer to that time in December. 

First then, let's look at the fixtures on offer in matchdays three and four along with projected goals and how they have fared to date this season:

Bayern remain the obvious pick here, although that hasn't really changed since the start of this new season. They've played well in two Champions League games, are dominating in the league. and face a Salzburg side who were lacking defensively even when in better form. The issue is who to target here, as discussed in this week's lineup lessons, although Lewandowski remains my number one target. 

Barcelona and Liverpool are both tricky propositions and 538's model clearly isn't picking up some of the potential noise here. Barcelona's underlying Champions League numbers look fine, but are of course buoyed by a couple of penalties, while their La Liga numbers are significantly down and suggest their may be trouble ahead. They face a Kyiv side who aren't particularly impressive, but have been solid defensively and will obviously setup again here looking to contain Messi and co. With only Messi, Pjanic, and de Jong having started both games it's tough to suggest who to target even if we did have more confidence outside of the great one.

Liverpool meanwhile are in somewhat the opposite position. They've been very good offensively, leading the Premier League in xG by a decent margin, and in Mo Salah (11.5m), Sadio Mane (11.0m), and to a lesser extent Roberto Firmino (9.0m), it pretty clear who will benefit when this team scores. The question mark though is that Liverpool have underwhelmed in two Champions League games to date, albeit with a rotated side against Midtjylland in MD2. Their opponents - Atalanta - meanwhile have been better defensively than expected, though their 1.5 xGC per game in the league highlights their vulnerability. With a weakened defense, its possible that Klopp will be more cautious, but against an elite attacking side Atalanta, it's also possible that this one turns into a shootout making Salah and Mane very tempting high priced assets for the next couple of games.

Manchester United and Ajax are two good sides, who face comparatively weak opponents, making them a very promising source of mid-priced options. Ajax in particular have a number of players with promising price tags, and with some players potentially missing out due to COVID complications, there could be starting spots for the likes of Lassina Traore (5.0m) who comes into this one in fine form. United options are pricier but the team can be very explosive and so they too could nicely fill out your squad.

Man City and PSG are teams you'd like to target but with injuries to the likes of Neymar, Aguero, and Jesus, we don't have as many options to choose from, and those who remain (De Bruyne, Mbappe, Sterling) aren't quite hitting the heights of last season. Leipzig have really disappointed in Europe but have been solid in the Bundesliga and will give PSG a good game. Olympiacos have done okay too and could be tough to breakdown, but I would be more comfortable backing City to have more joy here between these two modern titans.

Sevilla and Shakhtar are a couple of teams to target based on their opponents, but both have been so-so in Europe so far. That sounds harsh for the Ukrainian side, who beat Real Madrid and earned a good draw with Inter, but consider they managed an xG of just 1.3 and 0.1 in those games, and you see why the upside is limited here. That said, with options like Tete (5.2m) you don't need fireworks for him to make a very nice 5th midfielder option. Sevilla were very good against Rennes and deserved more than their 1-0 victory, but then played out a dull 0-0 with Chelsea in which neither team looked great. With Krasnodar on the schedule, preseason favourite Jules Kounde (4.0m) looks like a perfect player and should feature as a 5th defender in wildcards this week. It's tempting to double up defensively too, though at 5.0m Kounde's colleagues are good rather than amazing value. 

A few of the best value teams to date have tougher opponents here and are worth perhaps reconsidering your investment in. Atalanta in theory belong on this list, though it isn't clear exactly how good Liverpool are at the back right now, so while I might not pick Zapata and company on a wildcard, I wouldn't necessarily be rushing to sell either. Real Madrid, Club Brugge, and Inter meanwhile all appear to have much harder games than they've had to date and might see decreased value.