Lineup Lessons: Matchday Two

The games are coming thick and fast without the typical two-week cadence, which is probably a good thing for identifying who is in and out of the team (and who doesn't have COVID-19) but makes it really tough to find room to actually analyze what is happening. The below is a hybrid summary between who is playing and also who looked impressive. 

I must also note that one of my potential strategies coming into the season was to wildcard after MD2 to take advantage of the back-to-back fixtures in MD3 and MD4, which allows you to really tailor your lineup to take advantage of 33% of all the group games. Without committing to that move just yet, it is a factor when highlighting the players below.

Ajax

With two games coming up against Midtjylland, this is a side worth looking closer at. They went with a much more attacking lineup against Atalanta, which will presumably be the template against the Danes too. That might therefore mean a spot for Lassina Traore (5.0m) to lead the line, having only featured off the bench against Liverpool in MD1. A 0.5 xG illustrates that the Burkinabe teenager wasn't dominant (and his goal was maybe slightly fortuitous), but he also won the penalty for Ajax's other goal, and coming off a five (5) goal haul against VVV last weekend, it's clear that he has finishing ability. I might not re-shape my team for a player who could easily be benched if Tadic slides into one of the advanced roles, but if wildcarding he looks like a perfect enabler. 

Elsewhere, David Neres (8.5m) has really impressed (underlined by a 1.0 xA) but having been withdrawn after ~70 minutes in both games, and not offering much of a goal threat, that price tag might be too much. If you like to play the fixtures though, this remains a good one even if Liverpool weren't able to expose the Danish side as we might expect Ajax will.

Atletico Madrid

We mentioned Marcos Llorente (6.5m) as a possible option here if he locks down a starting spot, which seems increasingly likely to be the case. In the last three games he's been used in central midfield, wide right, and even alongside Suarez, scoring twice, albeit on so-so underlying stats. Atleti face Lokomotiv Moscow in the next two games, who have done okay but ultimately conceded twice in both games so Llorente seems like another mid-level option who makes sense for a potential wildcard.

Barcelona

This lineup is a bit of a minefield with Griezman (10.0m), Coutinho (9.0m), Fati (8.0m), Dembele (8.0m), Pedri (6.0m), and Trincao (5.5m) having all been given one start from the first two games. Indeed, only the great Messi (12.0m), Pjanic (7.5m) and de Jong (6.5m) have played in both fixtures among all midfielders and forwards. Their MD3 and MD4 opponents - Dinamo Kiev - have conceded twice in each game so far (although their xG of 2.2 suggests they might have been a touch unfortunate), while Barcelona's seven goals (on 5.1 xG) evidences their prowess despite perhaps not being as fancied as years past. Outside of Messi it seems almost impossible to suggest anyone here will play in both MD3 and MD4 so the calculation is really whether ~90-120 mins over two gameweeks is enough to justify a 8.0m+ investment, even if the fixtures look good.

Bayern Munich

Another elite side whose players seem to face a constant threat of rotation, again outside of their talismanic Lewandowski (12.0m). Muller (10.0m), Gnabry (10.0m), Coman (8.0m), Sane (9.5m), and to an extent Douglas Costa (7.5m) are all competing for three spots and its still not really clear who has the edge. Sane has yet to feature as he returns from injury while Gnabry hasn't yet discovered his form from last season. That has opened the door for Coman to really establish himself and even Costa to get minutes off the bench. Given the high prices, it is possible that the optimal strategy here would be to simply pair Lewandowski with a couple of Bayern defenders and pickup your premium midfielders from more secure locations.

Dortmund

Blog favourite Gio Reyna (6.5m) got the start here ahead of Bellingham (6.5m), though in a stroke of coincidence it was the substitute who again earned the assist. I still like the American here as he seems highly likely to either (a) start the game, or at worst, (b) be needed off the bench to unlock a defense should Dortmund struggle. His obvious connection with the unstoppable Haland is also a major plus. With two starts and penalty duties, Jadon Sancho (10.0m) is certainly one of the elite options whose opportunities look clear, although his underlying stats over the two games remain okay but far from spectacular.

FC Midtjylland

Mikkel Andersen (4.0m) got the start between the sticks which sounds like an interesting option but it should be short lived as strarter Jesper Hansen (4.5m) seems to just have a knock, so probably don't get tempted by this one.

Liverpool

Having been rested this week (to the severe detriment of the performance), one would imagine that the holy trinity of Salah (11.5m), Mane (11.0m), and Firmino (9.0m) will all be deployed more liberally for the next couple of games. With 2.8 xGC in two games against Ajax and Midtjylland, Liverpool's opponents - Atalanta - don't exactly have a solid defense, and rank 13th in Serie A in xGC. These games often don't pan out as expected but these two really could be 3-3 or 4-3 and you have to imagine someone from this Liverpool side will enjoy a big game or two. To start the season we leant towards Salah based on his penalty duties and I think that probably still holds.

PSG

With Neymar (11.5m) apparently sidelined through at least one game, Moise Kean (6.0m) - who got the surprise start even with a healthy Neymar - looks like an intriguing play here, given the lack of mid-priced talent in the forward category. Otherwise this side looks fairly settled and is one of the more predictable elite sides, though of course they aren't particularly lighting up the competition with a solid, if disappointing Leipzig due up next.

RB Leipzig

It's a shame this Leipzig side are underwhelming because their lineup has been much more stable than I suspected. Dani Olmo (6.0m), Emile Forsberg (7.0m), Chris Nkunku (7.5m), and Kevin Kampl (5.5m) have each started both games in midfield, with Yussef Poulsen (8.0m) also playing twice up top. The defense has seen a couple of players rotate but still offers stable spots for favourites Angelino (5.5m) and Upamecano (5.5m). They're still capable of beating PSG but without Werner they do seem to lack that edge and this isn't really a side where heavy investment seems as viable as it once did.

Real Madrid

Another top side whose lineup predictability is a total mess, with 10 midfielders or forwards having started one of the two games, and only three ever presents - Casemiro (6.0m), Valverde (6.0m) and Assensio (8.0m). They face a solid Inter side in MD3 and MD4 who are unlucky to find themselves on two points and while this Madrid side are capable, it would be a surprise to see a real explosion of points here, especially concentrated in any one player.

Shakhtar

This seems to be the most settled side in the competition with the same XI playing both games. Dentinho (5.5m) suffering an early hamstring issue will probably stop it extending to three straight games but there are certainly reliable budget options here. What to make of the team is unclear though. To the eye they looked really dangerous against Real Madrid but a 1.3 xG undermines that a little, though on the plus side those chances were all concentrated with just Tete (5.0m), Marlos (7.0m) and Solomon (5.5m). That was followed by another solid result on paper against Inter, but a game in which they were outscore 1.7-0.1 in xG and really should have lost. Their upcoming opponents - Monchengladbach - have conceded four times in two games, and are perhaps fortunate to have limited it to four with an xG of 4.7 (only Midtjylland, Krasnodar and Ferencvaros have posted worse marks). This is a case of whether you are willing to play the fixtures (with admittedly good price tags too) even though the underlying data and prior assumptions about the quality of this team might suggest otherwise.