Position Review: Elite Midfielders and Forwards

Rather than grouping players purely by position, I decided that arranging by "tiers" might make more sense. The rationale is that when deciding whether we want Romelu Lukaku (11.0m), the alternative probably isn't Patson Daka (7.5m) but is actually someone like Raheem Sterling (10.5m). Yes, they play a different position, and Daka may literally take Lukaku's place in your side, but with five midfield and three forward slots, the most precious resource is money and balancing out your elite options will likely take preference over the structure of your squad. The opporuntity cost of Luakaku is thus more likely to be Sterling than Daka.

As we work through the premium options (who I am defining as 9.5m or higher), I am working on the assumption that we can probably afford three, or maybe four of them, and thus we really want to have at least one playing on each "side" of the draw i.e. one on Tuesday and one on Wednesday. These are labelled as "S1" or "S2" below: neither side is better per se, you just want balance. 

One note of course, is that midfielders score an extra point per goal than their forward teammates, which can sometimes be a tiebreaking factor.

Let's also quickly look at the team projections for goals scored in the group stage (courtesy of 538). Players can still excel on teams lower down these rankings of course, but just be conscious that their share of the proverbial pie needs to increase as the size of the overall pie gets smaller:

The first name up is so obvious and widely held, as to almost change the structure of this season's game. What else is there to say about Robert Lewandowski (12.0m, S2)? 34 goals in 32 Bundesliga games and 15 goals in 10 Champions League games last season. 7 goals and 4 assists in just 6 games this season. He leads the line (and takes penalties) for the team that 538 rank as comfortably the best attacking unit in Europe, and that scored an outstanding 43 goals in last season's Champions League. All this doesn't guarantee anything of course, and it's not like Leo Messi (the greatest player of all time) necessarily led the competition in scoring every year even at his peak, but it does mean that if you are playing the odds then it seems almost impossible to avoid the Polish striker. With 46% of current managers feeling the same way, it just doesn't seem viable to risk him notching a hattrick in the early weeks and you facing a 30 point deficit before half your team have even kicked a ball. Unfortunately, this narrows our options a little as we now all need to essentially build a squad of 14 players for just 88 million.

The obvious place to go next are the historic pair of Messi (12.0m, S1) and Ronaldo (12.0m, S1), whose combined 57% ownership is probably in large part from managers not on the aforementioned Lewandowski bandwagon. In real life, I would venture that Messi remains at a significantly higher level than his Portuguese rival, but in fantasy football, being propped up by penalties is fine so long as they keep being awarded. Ronaldo scored 12 of his 31 goals from the spot last season and already has one in two starts this year which keeps him viable even at this price tag. That said, unless you think you can afford all three I would put Lewandowski and Messi materially ahead of Ronaldo which therefore makes him frozen out. 

Whether Messi is still worth the price tag is hard to say. 538 likes Barcelona as the best attacking threat in MD1 and they're third for the group stage, even if not what they once were. A single goal (from the spot) in four starts this season doesn't dispel concerns about of an ever-approaching Father Time catching the Argentinian legend, though a 2.4 xG + xA in those same games should calm fears a little. It's hard to bet against him, but the cold facts probably suggest that slightly better value if not pure points can be found lower down this page. Depending on how aggressive you want to be with transfers, it might at least be worth starting the season with Messi and then downgrading in MD2 to at least benefit from the visit of Ferencvaros, who gave up 15 shots and 3 goals to Molde in their qualification game.

After a couple of negative results it feels like Liverpool are thought to have taken a step backwards yet in reality they've notched 13 goals in 5 games, and their xG/90 of 2.56 trails only Bayern and PSG among those in the largest 5 leagues (and even then a big pinch of salt for those Ligue 1 numbers). Mo Salah (11.5m, S2) leads the scoring charts but Sadio Mane (11.0m, S2) actually has a slightly higher xG + xA / 90 mins for the season to date (1.25 vs 1.02) and comes with the lower price tag and ownership (2% vs 11%). The key is probably whether Salah's penalties are worth 0.5m over 6 games which is a very close call. Salah also enjoyed a stronger Champions League campaign last season with 4 goals and 2 assists (supported by an xG + xA per game of 0.78) compared to Mane's 2 goals, 2 assists and 0.61 xG + xA / 90 mins. If money was no limit I would shade towards Salah, but if that 0.5 million gives you a genuine upgrade elsewhere I'd be okay switching. 

Let's stay in the Premier League and shift to a side whose fortunes are always tough to predict: Man City. Guardiola's side features no less than four premium options with Kevin De Bruyne (11.5m, S2), Raheem Sterling (10.5m, S2), Sergio Aguero (10.0m, S2) and Gabriel Jesus (9.5m, S2) competing for your attention. Despite his credentials, with Aguero only back this weekend from injury, there is too much uncertainty around him (and thus Jesus) to risk 10.0m so that pair are out of contention for MD1 for me, as is De Bruyne, who may miss a couple of Champions League fixtures through injury. That leaves Sterling as the best way to access this elite side despite the fact his underlying numbers in a handful of games this season don't look great. His four starts have seen the Englishman score two goals and an assist, but with a total xG + xA of 1.2, he doesn't enjoy the statistical backing that others in this group do. City's group is relatively easy though and Sterling tends to avoid Guardiola's rotation more than most making him a very solid option here. 

PSG have three of their own premium options and are one of just two of the top seven projected scorers on the "other" side of the draw to Bayern. This means you will likely have the opportunity to captain Neymar (11.5m, S1) or Mbappe (11.0m, S1) each matchday, maximizing their potential (or theoretically Icardi but I don't see him as anywhere near the same level). Neymar's polarizing nature seems to sometimes make him almost underrated yet the higher price tag here seems very hard to justify. Mbappe significantly eclipsed his Brazilian teammate in both goals (30 vs 19) and assists (14 vs 11) last season, supported by a significantly higher xG + xA / 90 (1.52 vs 1.21). He's also proven more durable, reducing the chance of missing the odd game, and even notched a penalty against Nice, although Neymar wasn't on the pitch so may end up retaining those duties. Incredibly, Mbappe is currently exceeding last season's xG + xA rate with a frankly absurd 1.66 per 90 minutes. With seven multi-goal games last season (including the Champions League hattrick against Club Brugge), his explosiveness make him a sensational captain pick too and at 11.0m he's hard to ignore.

The final two options in the 11.0m group we've yet to touch on are also off to tremendous starts to the new campaign. Romelu Lukaku (11.0m, S2) enjoyed a rejuvenating first season at Inter, with 34 goals (27.6 xG) including 9 goals in Europe (2 in CL and 7 in EL). This season is off to an even hotter start with four goals in as many games, supported by an xG of 1.07 per 90 mins. He was the first choice penalty taker last season which helps his cause, but the concern here is that the Belgian is a little one dimensional and is unlikely to offer many points through assists, balls recovered, winning penalties etc. You also don't love the back-to-back fixtures with Real Madrid in MD3-4 although the opening tilt with Monchengladbach looks promising. At 10.0m Lukaku would make a lot of sense but at 11.0m I just don't see him quite matching all his peers here, despite Inter's strong form. 

Erling Håland (11.0m, S1) must have enjoyed perhaps the largest price rise in UCL history, after the darling of last season went from 4.5m at Salzburg to 11.0m at Dortmund. His scoring didn't really slow down after moving to the Bundesliga with 16 goals in 18 matches across all competitions for his new side. 5 goals and 3 assists in just 6 games this season suggest no signs of decline, although an xG of 2.1 and xA of 1.1 at least temper expectations a little. The 538 model doesn't love Dortmund's prospects, although this is one case where a player can still excel given Håland's large share of his side's goals. Facing Lazio, Zenit and Club Brugge also suggests six games in which we wouldn't really be scared to captain Håland, making him a very nice compliment to Lewandowski, who will inevitably get the first shot at the armband if you own him.

Håland's teammate Jadon Sancho (10.0m, S1) continues to put out good numbers, but his price tag is probably a touch high here based on his real life ability and all the transfer speculation from the summer. To be clear, his numbers and productive are both excellent but in this price bracket they need to be on another level, and with and xG + xA per 90 minutes of 0.72 last season and now 0.47 to date this year, I'm not sure he's quite there. 

Eden Hazard's (9.5m, S2) ongoing fitness concern rule him out of initial consideration, while Karim Benzema (10.5m, S2) probably deserves more than his 4% ownership. Another 5 goals in the competition last season plus a manageable group this year should at least put the Frenchman on people's radars. His per game numbers are not as explosive as some of the names in this piece though, and he has tended to accumulate his big numbers at least in part due to the sheer volume of games he plays, which doesn't do one much good when everyone on this list will play 5 or 6 games barring injury. Still, consistency is not to be ignored and if faced with a ~20m budget for two players, there's a good case that someone like Benzema and a 9.5m option would offer better value than one of the very expensive options and a ~8 million player, who all come with significant question marks.

We'll conclude this piece with the team we started with by looking at the remaining Bayern options. Serge Gnabry (10.0m, S2) looks hard to ignore after a terrific campaign last time around, though new arrival Leroy Sane (9.5m, S2) who had hit the ground running after his move from City, is out of contention for now with injury. One keeps waiting for the great Thomas Muller (10.0m, S2) to show some signs of age, yet it isn't happening yet, with the German averaging almost one xG + xA per game this season (Gnabry is even higher at 1.23 for what it's worth). When Sane returns, you worry that Gnabry may face additional risk of being rested (Bayern also boast Douglas Costa and last season's final hero Kingsley Coman) whereas Muller's position is perhaps harder to replace, but one would still expect both to play the majority of minutes (until Bayern qualify for the knockout rounds of course). The biggest impediment to both players might be the presence of so many other great Bayern options, with my current preference currently leaning towards a Lewandowski, Kimmich, and Davies trio, leaving this pair out of the running for now. I've therefore dropped them behind the likes of Jadon Sancho, to account for this extra opportunity cost.

I don't typically like to rank things subjectively without using an actual statistical model, but seeing as there are relatively few names here, the order I would target these players is something like the below (accounting for value, not just pure points):

1. Robert Lewandowski (12.0m, S2)
2. Kylian Mbappe (11.0m, S1)
3. Mo Salah (11.5m, S2)
4. Sadio Mane (11.0m, S2)
5. Raheem Sterling (10.5m, S2), 
6. Leo Messi (12.0m, S1)
7. Neymar (11.5m, S1)
8. Karim Benzema (10.5m, S2)
9. Erling Håland (11.0m, S1)
10. Romelu Lukaku (11.0m, S2)
11. Jadon Sancho (10.0m, S1) 
12. Serge Gnabry (10.0m, S2)
13. Thomas Muller (10.0m, S2)
14. Cristiano Ronaldo (12.0m, S1)
15. Sergio Aguero (10.0m, S2)**
16. Leroy Sane (9.5m, S2)**
17. Gabriel Jesus (9.5m, S2)**
18. Eden Hazard's (9.5m, S2)**
19. Kevin De Bruyne (11.5m, S2)**

** These players are all pushed down the rankings due to injury status, which rules them out of MD1 contention, or makes their role too uncertain.