Who's in and out in Matchday Six?


Group A

Bayern have locked up Group A, and after a hard fought battle with RB Leipzig at the weekend, are expected to rotate essentially the whole side again, as they did in MD5's tie with Atletico. With a handful of players sidelined (including Kimmich, Martinez, Tolisso, Davies, Hernandez, and possibly Boateng), there will likely be a need for a couple of starters to play here, which will mean Bayern remain a source of solid fantasy value.

Despite playing at the weekend, Sane looks like a good bet here, having only notched four starts this season. Gnabry was benched at the weekend so could feature here, though as a regular starter this could be considered a good opportunity to give him some rest. With Hernandez and probably Boateng missing, both Alaba and Sule could end up playing here without too many rotation options available.

Lomomotiv will presumably field as strong of a side as they can, in a quest for the Europa League spot, although they do have some personnel issues with a handful of injuries and suspensions. Either way, not a ton of value to target here.

Atletico need a draw to secure their place in the last 16 which means they will be fielding a strong side too. That solid (and affordable) defense continues to be a good option, as does the talismanic Joao Felix who netted twice in the reverse fixture. For those deploying a chip this week, Luis Suarez may even be worth a look, with so many of the elite forwards unlikely to feature.

RB Salzburg will also of course be going for it and seem to have almost a full compliment of players to choose from. Berisha has been the most productive option here, in what has been a bit of an underwhelming campaign for the Austrians, but it's tough to see him as anyone's best pick against a solid Atleti defense. 

Group B

All four team have something to play for, which is great for team selection, although none of the games look particularly easy, with perhaps Lukaku against a porous Shaktar side the pick of the bunch. Hakimi has had a disappointing campaign so far, but he scored twice at the weekend against Bologna, and was withdrawn for the last 20 minutes, suggesting he was being saved to start again here. Hakimi is still widely owned (24%) which makes his selection more or less appealing depending on your own team's league position.

It's incredible to think that there's no value to be found in this Madrid side, but yet even for those on a wildcard there doesn't seem like much to go on here, with the whole team either out of form, subject to rotation, or both. Among the top five European leagues, Real's best player in terms of xG + xA per 90 minutes is Benzema, though he ranks 74th - one place ahead of Alexandre Mitrovic - so I'm not sure paying almost the same price for him as Lukaku or Immobile makes a lot of sense.

One forward who makes more sense on paper is Alassane Plea, though his underlying numbers aren't great, and his 2.3 xG in the Champions League suggests his 5 goal haul to date is not necessarily based on solid fundamentals. Not one to drop, but probably not worth bringing in either.

Group C

Man City have already locked up top spot here, and Porto are through to the next round, so we're going to see wholesale changes from the group's big hitters. City, in particular, look likely to field a particularly rotated side given their clash with local rivals Man United at the weekend. Guardiola has given suggestions that it's important to maintain momentum here and that "good sides" win these games, yet with the derby coming up it's almost impossible to think that De Bruyne won't be rested, and he'll surely be joined by the likes of Jesus, Dias, and possibly Sterling who all seem essential for Saturday, for various reasons. That leaves plenty of intriguing options though, with Torres and Foden looking perhaps the safest bets going forward. Hard to pick who will start at the back here, with maybe Ake looking like a good bet, as he's in need of a game but almost certainly won't figure in the weekend's game. Zinchenko is also a possibility with Mendy and Cancelo featuring in the win over Fulham, and at least one of them will be needed against Man Utd. 

Porto's value to date has been concentrated at the back, and with a full contingent of players available here, they have a good chance at continuing those returns against a mediocre Olympiacos side. Sanusi or Mbemba look like solid defensive picks, with Marchesin offering okay value between the sticks. 

Even against potentially rotated sides, I don't see much in either Marseille or Olympiacos to warrant much interest. 

Group D

Having secured top spot, and having complained at length about fixture congestion, we will surely see almost an entire new eleven from Jurgen Klopp's side here. Having not played at the weekend, Jota looks well placed to get significant minutes in this one and is probably the best attacking pick at the crossroads of "likely minutes" and "talent". This looks like a perfect opportunity for Alexander Arnold to start and maybe last an hour on his way back from injury, though even then with a much rotated backline, the clean sheet is far from guaranteed (he would presumably have his pick of set pieces though). 

Atalanta and Ajax are playing for a place in the last 16 and will of course be going all out. The Italians will be without Gosens and Miranchuk due to COVID-19, while Gollini remains sidelined opening the door for Sportiello to continue as a cheap 'keeper option. This leaves plenty of value here with the likes of Zapata, Gomez, and anyone in the backline (probably Romero) being worthy inclusion.

Ajax have been frustrating this season with a stop-start campaign and plenty of rotation. Tadic as the talisman (and penalty taker) makes sense, but elsewhere the defensive value looks a little limited against a good attacking side like Atalanta, and two players who have impressed - Neres and Traore - are both carrying knocks and might miss out.

Group E

This group is completely settled, with no one having anything to play for. Despite facing last placed Rennes, Sevilla lack the depth and explosiveness to really excite here. Ordinarily we'd be chasing their defense, but with wholesale change possible, it's both difficult to know who to chase, and to predict with any uncertainty who they'll get on. Chelsea on the other hand, have so much depth that even a rotated side offers intriguing value against another weak side is Krasnodar. With Ziyech and Hudson-Odoi out, and Werner in need of rest, Pulisic looks locked into the side here and will be looking to impress. Havertz also looks well positioned for a run out, though between the two I would lean towards the American, with Havertz not really showing he's settled in at Stamford Bridge yet. At the back, Chelsea have obviously been incredibly solid to date, though with a shuffled pack (and Kepa back in goal), their value is certainly questionable, but someone like Rudiger could be a cheap play here, while Emerson, at 4.2m, is even cheaper and has even been suggested to be an option on the wide left given the need to rotate some of the first choice wide men.

For a bit of fun you could back Jeremy Doku or Eduardo Camavinga so in a couple of years you can look back and show how you were "ahead of your time" with the pick (I expect big things of both from what I have seen and read).

Group F

Haland was a heartbreaking late scratch last week, and now finds himself out for a few weeks, meaning Dortmund's top four points scorers are now injured (and their 5th - Hummels - was himself a doubt for the game at the weekend though did end up playing). With so many defenders out, this doesn't look like a great time to chase a clean sheet, but someone like Sancho is very intriguing as one of the more talented players who will very likely play this matchday. Another name is someone we've talked about before in these pages - Gio Reyna - who has impressed to the eye but doesn't have dazzling stats to suggest a big points haul is coming. He did scored again at the weekend though, and is being deployed in an advanced role in a solid team against a leaky defense so might be a solid enabler in the middle.

Lazio also need a result and face a good, but possibly vulnerable, Club Brugge side. Last time around ended 1-1 with Brugge actually leading 2.0 - 1.0 in xG, but this doesn't account for the lack of Ciro Immobile in that game. Immobile has racked up 2.5 xG in just three Champions League games, notching 4 goals and an assist in the process. The Italian front man is of course on penalties too, and looks just about the best forward option this week taking form, fixture and incentives to win into account. Elsewhere I would have been interested in Correa this week but he seems to be carrying a knock and seems risky at 8.1m. 

He's not a new name in these pages but I'd be remiss if I didn't once again highlight De Ketelaere who has been one of the value picks of the group stage so far, and goes into MD6 with a chance to propelling his unlikely Brugge side into the final 16.

Group G

Juventus and Barcelona square off here in a game that probably looks better on paper than it may end up being. Barce just need a draw to secure top spot, and given their horrifying form in La Liga, they might be happy to rotate here and focus on getting their league form back on track. The increasingly impressive Dembele has now joined the also-impressive Fati on the sidelines and with Messi also expected to be rested, that leaves perhaps Griezmann and Braithwaite to start here. The former has actually started to discover  bit of form this season with three goals an two assists in 10 games, backed up by 4.6 xG and 1.4 xA. With Messi out, the Frenchman could also be on penalty duties, although he did miss one earlier in the year so that's perhaps in question. Juventus' defense has been pretty solid so far (4 goals conceded on an xGC of 4.8) so this isn't exactly a "fixture" play, but again, with many elite talents out this week, snagging someone like Griezmann who is pretty locked into a starting role and looking to impress deserves consideration. 

Pirlo's pre-match comments sound more like someone who is considering playing a stronger team with perhaps the joint goal of trying to win the group while also getting some much needed relief considering their sputtering form domestically. Nostalgic players might consider the opportunity to play Buffon one last time, who received some encouraging comments from his boss, and is actually a nice little gamble at 4.2m for anyone on a wildcard. With Morata suspended for the next Serie A game, he could get a run out here, and look to add to his impressive haul so far in the competition. One would assume Ronaldo will miss out and seems not worthy of the risk at his price tag. 

Group H

This group looked good on paper when the draw was made and hasn't disappointed. Man Utd, PSG, and RB Leipzig can all still win the group, or fail to even progress to the final 16, making Tuesday a huge night for three teams who will fancy themselves as being able to have a genuine run to the later stages. PSG are obviously in the best position, knowing that a win against lowly Istanbul Basaksehir will see them progress. The game needs winning though, so the likes of Neymar, Mbappe and Di Maria should be in consideration for the week, even if their output in the competition to date has been underwhelming. Mbappe's domestic form continues to dazzle (1.7 xG + xA per 90 minutes) but of course he has yet to find the net in Europe. This seems like as good a week as any to end that run, though he certainly represents a bigger gamble than some of the names mentioned above (Lukaku, Immobile). Defensively, PSG seem to be one the smarter teams to back this week, led by Marquinhos (whose excellent ball recovery numbers are really helping his points tally) and perhaps Florenzi who is impressing on loan from Roma and offers a decent assist threat too.

Man Utd are a tricky team to predict at the moment, though at least they might start their best players in this one. That won't include Cavani and Martial, who are both injured and haven't travelled, meaning perhaps a game for Greenwood who scored a well taken goal at the weekend, and represents a nice option at 7.5m if given the nod. It's hard to look past Rashford and Fernandes in this team, and while in the league I would lean Fernandes, in a game they don't necessarily need to win, it might be Rashford's pace on the break that sees him continue his solid Champions League campaign.

Leipzig have a lot of promising players but this has felt like an in between season for me, not quite over the sales of players like Timo Werner and not quite ready to rely on the next round of talent. One of those players is almost certainly Dani Olmo who consistently impresses, but whose talents don't perhaps translate well into fantasy football. The defense looks blighted by injury too and is probably best avoided this week.

Summary

Overall then it's a mixed bag of games, and while we are missing some excellent talent in the likes of Lewandowski, Haland, and Messi there is enough here to help plug any holes you might have. I am personally toying with the idea of deploying the limitless chip, but I'm worried about wasting the "no budget" aspect of it as there simply aren't as many elite options to utilize this week. That said, I don't see many, if any, weak sides in the last 16 so this might be the last chance to chase huge hauls against really weak opponents. That one will be a game time decision for me. Good luck to all.

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