Position Review: Goalkeepers

This preview is going to be brief as, in short, I don't believe there are many 'keepers that warrant our attention. If we look at last year's points accumulation we see that with relatively few exceptions, the greatest predicator of points is simply playing games.

Unless something goes seriously wrong, you should at least enjoy 6 starts between the sticks, which gives you somewhere around 18-20 points if you pick even an average player and don't rotate based on fixtures. Even with Navas' five clean sheets, the PSG man still lost 2 points for conceding twice to Real Madrid, and only picked up four save points which equates to 32 points in the group stage (ignoring the penalty save which isn't really a repeatable skill, especially for better defenses). A 10 or 12 point difference isn't nothing but (a) that assumes you pick the right elite 'keeper, and (b) that one of the cheaper options doesn't become a top performer themselves (as Gulasci did last season). Navas will cost you 1.5m more, which could otherwise give you a significant upgrade elsewhere in your side (Jesus to Mbappe, a 4.5m bench option to Alphonso Davies etc.)

With that in mind, we are only looking here at 4.5m options plus one exception for Barcelona's Neto (5.0m) who will deputise for the injured Ter Stegen in one of the competition's better defenses. It looks like he might only get one or two starts, which then locks you in to using a transfer, however, if you like the idea of a MD3 wildcard though, then Neto could definitely come into play.

Let's look at how 538 predict each of the contenders to perform in the group stages. Note that I have included options like Adrian, Sportiello, and the aforementioned Neto, even though they will be replaced at some point during the group stage. It is therefore advisable to not have two of these options, unless you are pretty certain you are going to wildcard anyway, or don't plan to use transfers on your premium spots. I have also not included the options from the worst defenses as there doesn't much justification for looking at anyone from FC Midtjylland or Istanbul Basaksehir, even at this relatively low price.

One thing that jumps off the page is that Barcelona, and thus Neto (5.0, S1) , really are a step above the other options here, with four games projected to concede less than one, which is the lowest among this group in each of those matchdays. Ter Stegen seems to be out of the Real Madrid game on Oct 24th, with the trip to Juventus coming four days later. At best then, barring a setback to Ter Stegen we'd expect Neto to start just two games, and one of those isn't a particularly great fixture. If you plan to wildcard early on then it makes some sense to take advantage of that Ferencvaros fixture in MD1, yet I am hesitant to re-design my team to accommodate just one fixture, especially spending 0.5m extra in the process. I've been burned by these "too cute" moves in the past and for me I will pass on this one.

Adrian (4.5m, S2) seemed like a clever play when Alisson went down, but after conceding 13 goals in 5 games in the league with just a single clean sheet, and now losing their best defender for maybe the season, Liverpool don't look like someone to put a lot of faith in defensively right now, doubly so when they have to face Atalanta twice and a decent Ajax side in the first four matchdays. Concerns around burning a transfer apply here too, with Allison reportedly on course to play "before the end of October", which could even be the FC Midtjylland game you would presumably be targeting with Adrian.

Marco Sportiello (4.5m, S2) also looks like he might only get a couple of games between the sticks with Pierluigi Gollini initially said to be out for "2 months" back in mid-August, but without any updates of late. Like Neto above, Sportiello makes a promising MD1 option with a visit to FC Midtjylland but then the fixtures aren't great and you'll again have to use a transfer to get out of the position so I'm again not sure it's worth it.

This leaves more "pure" options: players who look locked into their teams, and might enjoy some consistent, albeit moderate success during the group stage. Mikhail Kerzhakov (4.5m, S1) seems like the front runner for a couple of reasons. First, 538's model really likes Zenit and projects fewer goals conceded for them than teams like Atletico Madrid and Man United. I suspect that if Jan Oblak or David De Gea were priced at 4.5m their ownership numbers might be a little higher than Kerzakhov's 9%. Second, Zenit enjoy a good opening game, so you are benefiting from his value early on, and then able to pivot to other alternatives who may emerge later in the group phase if you so wished. Finally, the Russian league is a little ahead of other European leagues so we know that (a) Zenit continue to offer solid defensive value (7 goals conceded in 11 games), and (b) are already in mid-season form, which can't be said for sure for teams in, say, Italy, who have played just two or three games. Kerzhakov's save numbers for last year's Champions League were far from spectacular (he'll basically give you a point a game) and that trend has continued in this year's Russian Premier League (30 saves in 11 games). But, he gets two games against Club Brugge - who blanked in 50% of their European games last season - and Lazio - who have managed just 4 goals in their opening 4 Serie A fixtures.

Next up is Jose Sa (4.5m, S2) who not only looks like the second best option in his own right, but also aligns really nicely with Kerzhakov in a couple of ways. Most importantly, they are in either side of the draw so you'll be guaranteeing two shots at a clean sheet every week. Also, the strength of their opponents aligns quite well, giving you the below fixture list based on the weakest opponent each week (538 projected goals conceded in parenthesis):

1. Kerzhaov vs Club Brugge (0.8)
2. Sa at Porto (1.3)
3. Kerzhaov vs Lazio (1.0)
4. Kerzhaov at Lazio (1.3)
5. Kerzhaov at Club Brugge (1.1)
6. Sa vs Porto (0.9)

For context, that sums to 6.4 which is a hair lower than Liverpool and Real Madrid are expected to concede in their 6 games. This pairing looks irresistible to me but for completeness we'll touch on a couple more names.

Simon Mignolet (4.5m, S1) is decent option too, but he's on the same side of the draw as Kerzakhov, meaning you'd need to pair him with Sa, which means facing either Dortmund or Man City in both MD3 and MD4 which sounds like a bad idea. He is on the other side of the draw than Arian and Sportiello, but that doesn't seem to solve anything as both of those players will likely be benched by MD3, again forcing you to face Håland and Sancho et al twice.

Dynamo Kiev's Georgiy Bushchan (4.5m, S1) actually rotates with Kerzhakov slightly better than Sa in terms of getting the lowest total but with him on the same side of the draw as the Russian, this is a deal breaker for me. Oh, he also has to face Messi and Ronald twice each, so you're really paying for two games against Ferencvaros which is a risky proposition.

In summary, for me this is one of the easier decisions in my squad with the Kerzhakov-Sa combination looking too good to pass on. This of course almost certainly means it will go up in smoke in MD1 as Zenit and Olympiacos each concede 6 goals, so maybe go ahead and target Marseille and Brugge players to start the campaign to capitalize on my misfortune!