Lineup Lessons: Matchday One

Trying to take away too much information from one week of data is clearly risky, yet with only six matchdays to work with, it's essential in the Champions League game to adjust quickly. 

If you take Timo Werner this season at Chelsea as an example, it is fairly clear to everyone he's a good player yet after four games he had done very little in terms of outcome, and even his underlying numbers were underwhelming. Yet, those who were patient in FPL were then rewarded with a huge game in his fifth league appearance. 

In the Champions League though, there is no time for such patience and you need to move quickly to maximize your squad. With the ability to sub-in players during the week, having at least a couple of viable subs is essential and carrying dead weight just isn't as feasible as it is in FPL. On the positive side though, there are 32 teams worth of talent to choose from, and all but a handful offer a number of viable options to choose from. 

This isn't to say we need to panic in cases where a player had a uncharacteristically poor day in terms of outcomes (Lewandowski) but we do need to consider moving on immediately whose underlying situation (i.e. playing time and tactical role) look compromised. 

With this in mind, the below viz shows each team's lineup for Matchday 1 (including subs) and their respective prices to try and tease out value. We'll focus on a few notable examples below along with some general thoughts in a subsequent post.

Atalanta

Christian Romero (4.5m) got the nod here in the middle of their back three, at the expense of Palmomino (4.5m) suggesting he could offer a cheap route into a team that opened their campaign with a clean sheet. Given their expected goals conceded (xGC) of 0.9 against the weakest side in their group (FC Midtjylland) though, I'm not sure that's all that exciting. As expected Sportiello (4.5m) started between the sticks but he's still expected to step aside when Gollini (5.0m) returns, although that timetable seems up in the air right now. 

Atletico Madrid

As expected, both Felipe (4.5m) and Savic (4.5m) got the nod here and should offer good value when playing easier games than this one. Marcos Llorente (6.5m) was a bit of a surprise here and with a goal and an assist to his name in limited playing time in the league, could offer intriguing value with a decent run of fixtures to come.

Barcelona

Francisco Trincão (5.5m) was the big surprise here, having not yet started in La Liga this season. He pressed quite well and managed 4 shots and a 0.6 xG, which was second only to Messi. The other three wide men to feature here (Fati (8.0m), Dembele (8.0m) and Pedri (6.0m)) all scored, with Dembele looking particularly impactful in his half hour of time off the bench, making Trincão far from a lock to play next time out. Sergio Dest (5.0m) was the cheapest man in the Barcelona defense, but it looks like Jordi Alba (6.0m) could return for El Classico this weekend, which will likely mean Dest's days are numbered. 

Bayern Munich

With Kimmich (6.5m) deployed in midfield, we are treated to 5 defensive options from this team. Boateng (5.0m) - was an unused substitute who could upset things but Davies (6.0m) is now out for 6-8 weeks, so Hernandez (5.0m) maybe jumps ahead of Pavard (5.0m) as the safest cheaper option.

Club Brugge

We might have to go back and re-watch this game as a couple of names jump out as interesting bench options. Emmanuel Bonaventure (5.5) led the line and scored, which can't be said for many in his price bracket. Brugge's 1.9 xG showed they were good value for their win and while Zenit were probably their easiest opponents, neither Lazio (1.9 xGC) nor Dortmund (1.4 xGC) looked impenetrable. Another name of note was Charles De Ketelaere (4.5m) who also found the net and comes at the lowest price tag for all midfielders. 

Dortmund

Marwin Hitz (4.5m) started in goal, ahead of Roman Burki (5.5m), who has missed a couple of games through injury but is now back in training. All indications are that Burki will return to the side this weekend though, which may well quickly extinguish any hopes of another 4.5m goalie option here. Gio Reyna (6.5m) was a player I touted in the preview columns, but Bellingham (6.5m) was preferred here. The American was introduced at half time and notched an assist for Haaland's goal, and their linkup play continued to impress. It wouldn't be surprising to see him start next week against Zenit therefore.

Dynamo Kiev

Illia Zabarnyi (4.0m) was a rare minimum-priced starter and I suppose is worth thinking about with Ferencvaros up next. Kiev's xGC of 1.2 isn't too bad, and given their woeful attacking threat (0.3 xG) the Ukrainian side will presumably look to keep things tight against their Hungarian opponents, with an eye on that Europa Cup spot.

Inter

Darmian (4.5m) was the surprise inclusion here, much to the frustration of many (your humble author included) who saw Achraf Hakimi (6.0m) miss out at the last minute with what appears to have been a false positive COVID-19 test. A second confirmatory negative would allow the Moroccan to retake his place for the upcoming game with Shakhtar. 

Juventus

Federico Chiesa (7.0m) is maybe one to watch here, having earned a second start after his recent transfer from Fiorentina. He earned an assist for his good wing play against Crotone (a game in which he was also sent off) and clearly makes an impact, even it the end product isn't always there. He seems to setup a little deep at times, and could lose playing time when the team is re-shuffled to accommodate the COVID-stricken Ronaldo, but if he keeps his place there is certainly something here. 

Man City

Eric Garcia (4.5m) came into the side for the first time since City's 5-2 defeat to Leicester back on Sep 27. The Spaniard's playing time is complicated though, as he seems to have one foot out of the door, and thus might not be given games with as much regularity as it he was a long term project for the club. Nathan Ake (5.0m) and Aymeric Laporte (5.5m) both missed out through injury suggesting Garcia's playing time will continue to be limited, though perhaps worth keeping in mind for the later matchdays should City have secured their berth in the last 16.

Marseille

Pape Gueye (4.5m) earned just his second start of the season, and given his solid ball recovery numbers could be a budget priced option if he were to hold onto this spot. His only other start came against PSG in the league, so maybe he will be preferred in Marseille's harder fixtures? Boubacar Kamara (4.5m) was suspended here and may well take that holding role, though it's perhaps notable that in the weekend's win over L'Orient, both Kamara and Gueye made the staring lineup, at the expense of Morgan Sanson (7.0m).

PSG

Abdou Diallo (4.5m) would offer excellent value here if he could hold down his spot, but with club captain Marquinhos (5.5m) fit enough to return in this weekend's win over Dijon, that looks to be in real jeopardy. That said, it looks like Marquinhos spent part of the game in a holding role in midfield, which could pave the way for Diallo to continue offering cut price access to this side. With two solid full backs seemingly locked into the team until Bernat's recovery from surgery, Kurzawa (5.0m) and Florenzi (5.0m) might be worth the extra 0.5m here.

RB Leipzig

Willi Orban (4.5m) could enjoy a run the RB Leipzig team with Lukas Klosterman facing a spell on the sidelines, and possibly even surgery, though with Ibrhima Konate (5.0m) coming back to full fitness, that it not necessarily a done deal. Even putting aside his goal scoring outcomes, Angelino (5.0m) enjoys an advanced role and excellent underlying numbers to easily justify the extra 0.5m cost that also brings with it more secure playing time.

RB Salzburg

Though he didn't do much in terms of underlying numbers in MD1, Sekou Koita (6.0m) is worth keeping in the back of your mind as one of the few forwards available at that price who even have a chance at paying dividends. 

Real Madrid

Vinicius Junior (8.0m) was on my radar before MD1, but along with Barcelona's Fati I wasn't sure he would play. Unlike Fati, the Real Madrid man found himself on the bench here, though like his Barcelona rival, he impressed, and scored, and found himself back in the starting XI for the weekend's El Classico clash against Fati's Barcelona. Despite a poor showing against Shakhtar, there remains a lot of talent in this Madrid side so Vinicius Junior isn't locked in to a starting spot, but you might guess he will find himself ahead of Jovic and Rodrygo sooner rather than later, which may make that wide role his own to lose. Valverde (6.0m) is another name that might spark interest at his price, but with Kroos (8.0m) looming and the fact he offers little more than the more secure Casemiro (6.0m) means you should probably look elsewhere (his two goals have come on an xG of 0.3 so don't look particularly sustainable).

Zenit

The widely held Wimar Barrios (4.5m) indeed got the start here and justified the pre-season hype with a solid display buoyed by 10 balls recovered.